经济学人:自由交流:丰厚的回报(01)

Finance and Economics

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Free Exchange: Many happy returns

自由交流:丰厚回报

A new data trove helps reshape how the economy is understood.

新的数据宝藏有助于重塑经济体被如何理解。

Data-gathering is the least sexy part of economics, which is saying something.

正在讲述某件事情的数据收集工作是经济学中最乏味的部分。

Yet it is also among the most important.

然而,它也是最重要的部分之一。

The discipline is rife with elaborate theories built on assumptions that turned out to be false once someone took the time to pull together the relevant data.

这门学科充斥着各种精妙的理论,这些理论都是建立在一旦有人花点时间去收集相关数据就被证伪的假设之上。

Accordingly, one of the most valuable papers produced in 2017 is an epic example of data-retrieval: a piece of research that spells out the rates of return on important asset classes, for 16 advanced economies, from 1870 to 2015.

于是,在2017年所发表的最有价值的论文之一是一个开天辟地的数据收集范例:一篇讲清楚重要资产类别回报率的研究论文,涉及16个发达经济体,时间跨度从1870年到2015年。

It is fascinating work, a rich seam for other economists to mine, and a source of insight into some of today's great economic debates.

它是令人为之而着迷的工作,一座有待其他经济学家去开采的富矿,一处对当今各种伟大的经济争论有着深刻见解的源头。

Rates of return both influence and are influenced by the way firms and households expect the future to unfold.

回报率在影响公司和家庭预测未来展开的方式的同时也受其影响。

They therefore find their way into all sorts of economic models.

因而,它们在各种类型的经济模型中都有一席之地。

Yet data on asset returns are incomplete.

然而,有关资产回报的数据是不全面的。

The new research, published as an NBER working paper in December 2017, fills in quite a few gaps.

在2017年12月做为美国国民经济研究局的一份工作论文发表的这项新研究,填补了很大的空白。

It is the work of five economists: oscar Jorda of the San Francisco Fed, Katharina Knoll of the Bundesbank, Alan Taylor ofthe University of California, Davis, and Dmitry Kuvshinov and Moritz Schularick, both of the University of Bonn. (Messrs Jorda, Schularick and Taylor have spent years building a massive collection of historical macroeconomic and financial data. )

它是五位经济学家——旧金山联储的oscar Jorda、德国央行的Katharina Knoll、加州大学戴维斯分校的Alan Taylor以及波恩大学的Dmitry Kuvshinov 和 Moritz Schularick——的工作成果。(Jorda,Schularick 和 Taylor等三人在构建一个大型的历史宏观经济和金融数据集上花费了数年的时间)。

For each of the 16 economies, they craft long-term series showing annual real rates of return—taking into account both investment income, such as dividends, and capital gains, all net of inflation—for government bonds and short-term bills, equities and housing.

他们为16个经济体中的每一个经济体都精心制作出一系列长期数据,展示了——将红利等投资收入以及资本所得和全部的净通胀都考虑在内的——政府债券、短期票据、股票和房产的年均实际回报率。

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